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Fundamentals of ML observability
Metrics, feature importance and more
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Machine learning (ML) for forecasting involves using algorithms to learn patterns in historical data and make predictions about future events or trends. Forecasting is essential in various industries, such as finance, retail, healthcare, energy, and transportation, for planning and decision-making purposes. ML-based forecasting methods have become increasingly popular due to their ability to model complex relationships and adapt to new data.
This is part of a series of articles about machine learning for business.
Machine learning forecasting has a wide range of applications in business, helping organizations make data-driven decisions, optimize processes, and improve overall performance. Here are four key use cases of ML forecasting for businesses:
ML algorithms can be used to predict financial outcomes, such as revenues, expenses, and profitability. By analyzing historical financial data, these models can help businesses make informed decisions about investments, budgeting, and resource allocation. Additionally, ML-based financial forecasting can assist in identifying potential risks and opportunities, allowing companies to proactively manage their financial health.
Learn more in our detailed guide to machine learning for finance
In supply chain management, ML forecasting can optimize inventory levels, production planning, and distribution strategies. By analyzing past supply chain data, ML models can predict demand fluctuations, supplier lead times, and potential disruptions. This enables businesses to maintain optimal stock levels, reduce waste, and minimize costs associated with excess inventory or stockouts.
ML algorithms can analyze factors such as market trends, consumer behavior, and competitor pricing to predict optimal pricing strategies for products and services. Accurate price predictions help businesses maximize revenues, improve customer satisfaction, and maintain a competitive edge in the market.
Machine learning can be employed to forecast customer demand and sales performance. By analyzing historical sales data, customer demographics, and external factors such as economic indicators and seasonal trends, ML models can predict sales volume and revenue. This information allows businesses to optimize marketing strategies, allocate resources effectively, and plan for future growth.
Time series forecasting involves predicting future values based on past observations in a time-ordered sequence. Common ML models used for time series forecasting include ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average), SARIMA (Seasonal ARIMA), and Prophet (a procedure developed by Facebook). These models capture various aspects of time series data, such as trends, seasonality, and cyclical patterns, to make accurate predictions.
Regression algorithms model the relationship between a dependent variable (the target) and one or more independent variables (features). In forecasting, regression models can be used to predict future values based on historical data. Examples of regression algorithms include linear regression, logistic regression, ridge regression, and LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator).
These algorithms construct decision trees or ensembles of trees to make predictions. They can be used for both regression and classification tasks, including forecasting. Examples of tree-based algorithms include decision trees, random forest, and gradient boosting machines (GBM). These methods are effective at capturing complex interactions between features and handling non-linear relationships in the data.
Auto-regressive models predict future values based on a weighted sum of past observations. In other words, they use previous data points as input features to predict the next value in a time series. Some popular auto-regressive algorithms include AR (AutoRegressive) models, VAR (Vector AutoRegressive) models, and RNNs (Recurrent Neural Networks) such as LSTMs (Long Short-Term Memory) and GRUs (Gated Recurrent Units), which are particularly effective in handling long-term dependencies in time series data.
Exponential smoothing techniques are used to forecast time series data by applying a weighted average of past observations, with more recent data receiving higher weightage. The most popular methods include Simple Exponential Smoothing, Holt’s Linear Trend Method, and Holt-Winters Seasonal Method. These methods are particularly useful when the data exhibits trends or seasonality and require a simple and interpretable forecasting model.
Applying machine learning forecasting involves several steps, from data preprocessing to model evaluation. Here’s a step-by-step guide to implementing machine learning forecasting:
Model monitoring is essential for maintaining the performance and reliability of machine learning forecasting models. It helps detect data drift, model degradation, anomalies, and ensures compliance and fairness. Key metrics to track include forecast accuracy, model stability, feature importance, data quality, and bias and fairness. Regular monitoring enables early identification of issues and maintains the accuracy, reliability, and equity of ML systems.
Aporia’s ML observability platform is the ideal partner for Data Scientists and ML engineers to visualize, monitor, explain, and improve ML forecasting models in production in minutes. The platform supports any use case and fits naturally into your existing ML stack alongside your favorite ML tools and frameworks. We empower organizations with key features and tools to ensure high model performance:
Root Cause Investigation
To get a hands-on feel for our ML observability platform, we recommend: